ARLINGTON, Va. -- Consumers will see another major runup in food prices this summer due to rapidly increasing animal feed costs, a result of competition for corn and oilseeds between livestock and poultry feeding and alternative fuels production, the American Feed Industry Association board of directors was told at its recent meeting.
AFIA President and CEO Joel Newman, in his state of the industry report to the AFIA board, said Congress and the Bush Administration must recognize that $5 a bushel corn -- and similar price jumps for soybeans and other food grains -- can no longer be viewed as anomalies or temporary. "$5 corn looks to be closer to the new 'normal,' " Newman said, adding ethanol's use of corn will hit 27 percent of the U.S. corn crop during the 2007-2008 crop year.
The AFIA board was told the average 5 percent increase in consumer food prices experienced last year is just the beginning, with food prices likely jumping another 10 percent-12 percent this year.
"The industry's cost of production escalation has only just started to work its way through the system. Feed price increases will be pushed through the food chain over the next six months," Newman said, "Consumers can expect to see even higher prices for meat, poultry and dairy products."
Newman laid out the "perfect storm" of factors forcing food prices higher, starting with crude oil prices topping $100 a barrel and increasing demand for alternative fuels. Couple that demand surge with the effect of global livestock liquidation, particularly in the swine industry, increasing export demand for U.S. grains and oilseeds to meet stronger global demand for animal protein, an 11 percent increase in world feed production -- which has led to record low U.S. stocks-to-use ratios -- combined with a weak U.S. dollar and significant increase in ag commodity speculators, and you have the inevitable pressure on U.S. food prices, Newman said.
Supporting the AFIA internal analysis is a report released by the Coalition for Balanced Food and Fuel, of which AFIA is a member. In his report, presented at the Annual Meat Conference in Nashville, Tenn., Dr. Tom Elam, president of Farm Econ, an analysis company, said he estimates the cumulative costs to the food industry of the federal renewable fuel program will be about $100 billion for 2005-2010.
Elam said broiler industry input costs this year are up $3.4 billion (53 cents per bird); turkey input costs are up $646 million ($3.40 per turkey); swine input costs are up $2.9 billion ($38 per hog); cattle input costs are up $2.24 billion ($117 per fed beef animal); and dairy input cost are up $2.7 billion.
AFIA is an organization devoted exclusively to representing the business, legislative and regulatory interests of the animal feed industry and its suppliers. Membership includes more than 500 domestic and international companies; state, national and regional associations. Companies include feed and pet food manufacturers, integrators, pharmaceutical companies, ingredient suppliers, equipment manufacturers and companies which supply other products, services and supplies to feed manufacturers.
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